Climate change

Atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases continued to increase. Australia accounts for about 0.33% of the world’s population but produces 1.35% of the world’s carbon dioxide emissions—four times the global average. In South Australia, emissions per person and emissions per unit of gross state product have decreased over the reporting period (2006–07 to 2011–12), but remain high in comparison with the world average and other Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development countries (Garnaut 2008).

Energy production is still the dominant source of state emissions (74%) but renewable energy production and use has increased. Wind energy is now contributing nearly 30% of electricity production in South Australia—on schedule to meet the South Australian Government’s target to generate 33% of its electricity needs from renewable sources by 2020 (Government of South Australia 2011).

Wide-ranging effects of climate change are already being seen, and more challenging changes are expected.

Global average temperatures rose by just over 0.7 °C in the 100 years from 1910 to 2009. The reporting period included the warmest year on record, with further increases in average and extreme temperatures expected.

There has been a clear decline in average rainfall in southern Australia since 1970, which has been linked to rising temperatures; this drying trend is likely to persist. We are also seeing increased climate variability, demonstrated by the fact that the reporting period included the third and fifth wettest years on record, in spite of the long-term declining rainfall trend (BoM 2011). This variability and decline have obvious implications for future water supplies and agriculture. The Adelaide desalination plant will significantly reduce the risks of future variability in water supply.

Increased climate variability is also leading to increased frequency and severity of extreme weather events such as heatwaves (BoM 2011). In addition to the effects of high maximum temperatures, high minimum (overnight) temperatures during heatwaves have been found to affect the ability of people and other species to recover from heat stress. Adelaide recorded its hottest night in January 2009 and this was linked to a steep increase in mortality from heart disease.

In summary

Component	Summary	Assessment grade				Confidence
		Very poor	Poor	Good	Very good	In grade	In trend
Recent Trend Improving Stable Deteriorating Unclear Level of confidence Evidence and consensus too low to make an assessment Limited evidence or limited consensus Adequate high-quality evidence and high level of consensus Grades Very Poor Poor Good Very Good
State greenhouse gas emissions	Per capita emissions and emissions per unit of gross state product have decreased. Per capita emissions are still one of the highest in the world. Atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases are increasing. State sources of greenhouse gases are increasing.
Rainfall	The reporting period includes the third and fifth wettest years on record. The long-term trend is for a decline in rainfall.
Temperature	The reporting period includes the warmest year on record. The long-term trend is for increases in average (air and sea surface) and extreme temperatures.
Energy	Energy production is still the dominant source of state emissions (74%). Renewable energy has increased as a proportion of total installed capacity and of the proportion supplied and used.
Sea level	The global trend is for a rise in sea level, with variances based on local geomorphology, wind direction/strength, etc.
Oceans	Sea temperature and acidity are increasing; salinity is changing.
Marine and terrestrial biodiversity	Trends in biodiversity are negative to variable, with changes in gene pools, species ranges, biological patterns and ecosystem dynamics.
Human health, infrastructure, agriculture and forestry	Reduced rainfall will affect water supplies and agriculture. Climate variability has increased, leading to increased frequency and severity of some extreme weather events such as heatwaves. The increased frequency of extreme events will impact police, emergency services, infrastructure maintenance, volunteers, etc.

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